Turkey on a tightrope: ‘Erdoğan is a threat to democracy and undermines NATO unity on Ukraine’

A PROBLEM FOR NATO: Erdoğan’s Turkey is supplying drones to Ukraine but increasing trade with Russia. Picture by Meg Jerrard

The Accidental Diplomat, a column by Paul Knott

Why Turkey needs a change of leadership and direction

Democracy and dictatorship. East and West. Russia and Ukraine. Hull City’s promotion prospects. Few countries are as central to so many important world issues as Turkey.

A crunch point for all of these matters is fast approaching because Turkey has an election scheduled on 14th May which will decide the fate of its increasingly erratic and authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Erdoğan is a classic case of a leader who has been corrupted by being in power for too long. He first rose to prominence as the Mayor of Istanbul before being elected Prime Minister in 2003 and initially raised high hopes. At a time of Islamist terrorism, including the 9/11 attacks on America, Erdoğan and his Justice & Development Party (the AKP) seemed to show how religious belief could be combined with peaceful, democratic politics. Erdoğan’s economic policies also promised to spread prosperity in Turkey far beyond the traditionally better off classes.

It was thought these positive developments would bring this pivotal country closer to Europe and provide the troubled nations of the Middle East next door with an example to follow. Economically, some of this promise was fulfilled. The greater prospects Erdoğan and the AKP provided to the often pious, small traders and tradesmen from outside of the big cities mean some of them still support him to this day.

Sadly, many of these gains have been ruined by Erdoğan’s economic mismanagement over more recent years. Turkey is not the only place with an inflation problem at the moment. But its cost-of-living crisis is one of the worst in the world. Prices rose by an average of 85 per cent last year and many people’s savings were wiped out. As a fig leaf, Erdoğan has announced pension and minimum wage increases, amongst other apparent giveaways. But these short-term measures cannot keep up with the rampant inflation and are a clear attempt to lessen the pain until after the election, when the unresolved problems building up are likely to explode.

Worse still, the horrific recent earthquake in south-eastern Turkey exposed how the widespread corruption under Erdoğan had allowed many buildings to be constructed without meeting the legal safety standards. The collapse of these structures and the resource-starved emergency services’ inability to respond urgently to the disaster meant that thousands more people died than would otherwise have been the case.

In common with political scoundrels everywhere, the already jingoistic Erdoğan has moved in an even more nationalistic direction, as he attempts to distract attention from his appalling failures. The hopes he aroused in his early years for a peaceful relationship with the culturally and linguistically distinct Kurdish people who populate large swathes of Turkey have long since sunk. Instead, his government now uses the Kurds as a punch bag to attack and arouse the worst instincts of some others in Turkish society.

This impacts the the wider world because the Kurds also predominate in the regions of northern Iraq and Syria that border Turkey. Erdoğan’s unsavoury escapades there are increasing instability in places that hardly need more of it.

One outcome could be a renewed increase in the flows of refugees from the area, something Erdoğan could also prompt by pushing some of the 3.6 million mostly Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey towards Europe. Erdoğan has shown he is willing to play with people’s lives in this way for his own political advantage. He and some of his supporters are already preparing the ground by stirring up resentment against the refugees in Turkey, undermining the impressive work the country as a whole has done in accepting and accommodating them.

Another nasty nationalist avenue Erdoğan is exploring to stir up support is raising tensions with Turkey’s old foe, Greece. Both countries are members of NATO and Turkey has the alliance’s second largest armed forces, after the USA. If this sabre-rattling were to spill over into actual fighting, it would be extraordinarily dangerous at a time when European security is already threatened by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Turkey under Erdoğan is walking a tightrope on that conflict by supplying Ukraine with military drones whilst also undermining sanctions and propping up Putin’s war machine by increasing its trade with Russia. This latter position is unacceptable for a NATO member committed to the collective defence of its allies. Nor would it be good for Turkey in the long-run to have an aggressive Russia just across the Black Sea from it and emboldened by any success Putin has in attacking his neighbours.

Given Erdoğan’s record of mismanagement, you might wonder why he currently only trails the opposition alliance’s candidate by four per cent in the polls and his defeat in the upcoming election is not already assured. The reason is that Erdoğan is one of a group of leaders worldwide who came to power democratically but seek to stay there by destroying their countries’ democratic institutions.

In Turkey’s case, the actual voting on election day is still likely to be largely clean. But Erdoğan has tilted the playing field to make sure the campaign is not free and fair.

About 80 per cent of the Turkish media is now controlled by Erdoğan’s allies and serves as a mouthpiece for his party. Independent Turkish journalists are routinely intimidated and imprisoned. Similar tactics are used against opposition politicians. Erdoğan has used his influence over the legal system to prevent his strongest opponent, the Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu, from standing against him. The uninspiring veteran economist and politician Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is now tasked with holding the disparate opposition alliance together instead.

There are concerns too that Erdoğan will use his grip on the administrative machinery to make sure the millions of people displaced to other parts of the country by the earthquake are not able to vote in either their home or temporary constituencies. Their awful recent experiences of government failure mean many of these people are expected to support the opposition – if they are allowed to do so. Turning his own failures to his personal political advantage in this way would be entirely in keeping with Erdoğan’s cynical way of operating.

It is important that Erdoğan does not succeed in clinging onto power. If he does so, he is likely to use his next term to undermine Turkey’s democracy further to make sure he is never at risk of losing power again. This would be a major loss in the ongoing global struggle between democracy and dictatorship. Given its crucial geographic position between Europe and the Middle East and vital role in defending European security, including against Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the further decline of Turkey as a reliable ally would be a big problem for the rest of us.

And as for that promotion push next season? Hull City owner Acun Ilıcalı is a Turkish TV entrepreneur. The damage Erdoğan remaining in power might do to the Turkey’s economy and media freedom may well reduce his pot of transfer funds.