‘Populists make poor leaders, thankfully their grip is slipping’

TINPOT: Effigies of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Picture by Jorgen Haland

The Accidental Diplomat, a column by Paul Knott

‘Enough of the attention seekers; quiet competence is what we need now’

It has been a difficult few years for many people in most places across the world. We have seen Covid, a cost-of-living crisis, war and political division weakening established democracies in ways few of us have ever witnessed. The good news is that we might be past the peak of the right-wing populism that has made these problems worse.

I realise some readers who have supported such movements will dispute that assessment. My only polite request is that they take an honest look at the state the world has been plunged into whilst the right-wing populists have been in power.

It is undoubtedly true that governments everywhere are grappling with the same immense challenges. It is also clear that countries run by right-wing populists have fared worse than comparable nations when it comes to tackling them.

Britain under Boris Johnson, Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro, India under Narendra Modi, and the US under Donald Trump all suffered Covid death rates that could have been much lower if those countries had been run during the crisis by more capable and caring leaders.

Johnson’s supporters will point to the vaccine rollout, which did go better than every other aspect of the UK government’s disastrous Covid response. Rather than a clear strategy though, even this was a gambler’s lucky punt on pre-buying potential vaccines, in the hope of saving the government from the consequences of its other pandemic failures. Once they had completed their more considered analysis of the situation, most other European countries soon caught up with Britain’s vaccine rollout and in some cases surpassed it.

‘AN INHERENTLY DISHONEST PRODUCT OF THE ULTRA-ELITE’: An image of Boris Johnson being carried at an anti-Brexit rally. Picture by Jannes Van den wouwer

A similar pattern is emerging on inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. The whole world is struggling with the supply chain issues caused by the Covid disruption, particularly the ongoing lockdowns in China (led by the hardline nationalist, Xi Jinping), and the global energy price spike sparked by the brutal invasion of Ukraine ordered by the Godfather of right-wing populists, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Some countries are striving to tackle the problems these issues are causing. Fuel prices are now falling in the US as the Biden administration continues to clean-up the dreadful mess left behind by Trump. And across Europe, proactive government action to help ordinary, hardworking households is ensuring energy bills are rising less painfully than in the UK.

Nations run by right-wing nationalists are invariably suffering more. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey has perhaps the world’s worst inflation problem. It is enduring an 80.5 per cent rise in consumer prices this year. For a comparison even closer to home, Switzerland’s inflation rate for July was 3.4 per cent, France’s was 6.8 per cent, whilst Britain’s was 10.1 per cent and rising. The difference could be called the price of populism.

There are reasons for right-wing populism’s failure. As an ideology, it is ill-suited to governing. It is based on identifying easy scapegoats to blame (usually foreigners, minority groups and the most vulnerable people in society) for a country’s failings and spouting simple slogans, rather than producing properly worked out solutions to complex problems. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” has made the US politically weaker than at any time since the Civil War in the 1860s. In the UK, the Tories have followed the “Hostile Environment” and “Take Back Control” headline-grabbers on immigration with shouts of “send in the Navy” and “send them to Rwanda”. The actual outcome is more desperate people seeking to cross the Channel in dangerous small boats than ever before.

Right-wing populists often lack the required character traits for governing too. Trump, Johnson, Bolsonaro and France’s Marine Le Pen are inherently dishonest products of the ultra-elite posing as the people’s friend against the very same privileged class to which they belong. They are motivated by the attention and self-aggrandisement that comes from revving-up a crowd, not by acting to improve the lives of others. Few of them devote much effort to the duller work required to run a country, such as attending meetings and reading briefings in order to understand the issues.

‘AS A CHEERLEADER FOR THE PREVIOUS REGIME, TRUSS’S CHANCES OF BEING A SUCCESSFUL PRIME MINISTER ARE SLIM TO ZERO’: Tory leadership candidate Liz Truss in a picture from her ‘Liz for Leader’ campaign

Driven by selfishness and their fragile need for approval, politicians of this type are prone to appointing unthreatening “yes-men” and cronies on the make as ministers. Such sidekicks rarely challenge their thinking in order to produce better decisions.

The previously comfortable island nation of Sri Lanka provides a warning of where such a political approach ultimately leads. The rule of the corrupt Gotabaya family clan caused food, fuel and financial shortages and was recently ended by an uprising on the streets. The political system has placed one of the Gotabayas’ loyal former ministers, Ranil Wickremesinghe, in charge of sorting out the situation.

Whilst Wickremesinghe is seeking to salvage Sri Lanka, Boris Johnson’s likely successor, Liz Truss, will soon be tasked with turning round the UK. The chances of either of these cheerleaders for the previous regime succeeding are, as the notorious boxing promoter Don King once said, “somewhere between ‘Slim’ and ‘None’. And Slim just left town”.

But back to the good news. The grip of these populists seems to be slipping. Putin has messed up massively and weakened his position by invading Ukraine. Erdogan and Bolsonaro both face elections within the next year that they are likely to lose, unless they find ways to prevent free and fair votes from taking place. The Gotabayas have gone. Johnson is going and his party’s future prospects look poor. Trump, too, has already been voted out and might finally be facing the consequences of a life spent believing laws only apply to the little people.

Permanently closing this tragic chapter in world politics will not happen by itself. But citizens of democracies are fortunate in having less dramatic options available to bring about change than burning barricades (which is handy, given the price of the petrol needed to light them). We can inform ourselves and seek to persuade others. And, when the time comes, vote. When voting, we can choose a candidate who might not stir our emotions or make us laugh, but who will not constantly lie or demand attention either. A candidate who will quietly and competently do the hard work of running the country while we get on with our lives. We should make that choice and ditch the failed populists at the first available opportunity.