New voting dynamics only add to sense of political change
BALLOT: Voters go to the polls on July 4
With a General Election just weeks away, Angus Young takes the political temperature in our region
A July 4 General Election looms on the horizon of what appears to be a shifting political landscape.
In one sense, change has already happened with re-drawn constituency boundaries adding to the traditional mix of variables whenever the country goes to the polls.
In Hull, the new-look political map means comparisons with the previous election carry less weight than usual. Instead, potential new voting dynamics have been injected into the proceedings.
These are most evident in the renamed seat of Hull West and Haltemprice, which now includes the East Riding villages of Anlaby, Kirk Ella, West Ella and Willerby along with most of West Hull and Hessle itself.
In the Brexit-dominated 2019 election, Labour’s Emma Hardy saw her majority in the previous Hull West and Hessle constituency slashed to just 2,856 votes ahead of second-placed Conservative candidate Scott Bell.
This time Ms Hardy’s Conservative challenger will be Rachel Storer, who came within 1,239 votes of beating Labour’s Karl Turner in Hull East four years ago in what would have been a major shock.
On paper at least, the addition of those East Riding suburbs should help Ms Storer’s cause this time around in Hull West and Haltemprice even if the national polls continue to chart a Tory slump.
Yet the same could also be said for Liberal Democrat candidate Linda Johnson, with her party now comfortably established as the majority administration at Hull City Council as well as currently holding five of the six council seats in the Hessle and Tranby wards on East Riding Council.
At the time of writing, a potentially vote-splitting Reform UK candidate had yet to be selected for the constituency, but Green Party candidate Kevin Paulson and Lucy Needham of the Social Democratic Party are confirmed.
NEW CONSTITUENCY: Labour’s Emma Hardy, hoping to win the renamed seat of Hull West and Haltemprice. Picture by Tom Arran
In Hull North, Labour’s Diana Johnson will be aiming to win her sixth straight General Election contest in a constituency which now includes Cottingham as well as the Central council ward in Hull taking in Spring Bank and the southern part of Beverley Road, having lost the North Carr ward in Bransholme to Hull East.
Although she also won with a reduced majority in 2019, Dame Diana still ended up with a healthy 7,593 majority and it would take a brave person to bet against her extending that next month.
Much will depend on who stands against her this time. As yet, there are still no Conservative or Lib Dem names in the frame. Other candidates include Reform UK’s Martin Baker and Green Party challenger James Russell.
Having survived that close shave in 2019, Karl Turner will be looking to restore his party’s fortunes in Hull East with a more emphatic result.
Again, much depends on whether the Lib Dems or Conservatives mount a serious challenge. Neither has yet to announce a candidate in a constituency now expanded thanks to the addition of that North Carr ward.
STRONG RECORD: Dame Diana Johnson, aiming for a sixth straight win in the revised constituency of Hull North and Cottingham
Other confirmed candidates standing here so far include Julia Brown from the Green Party and John Paul Stonehouse of the Workers Party of Britain.
Despite the relatively narrow squeaks of four years ago, a Labour clean sweep in the three seats this time seems the most likely outcome assuming the party’s national polling holds up here.
If that happens, it would be the first time in 14 years that the city’s three MPs were part of a ruling government, but what would that mean for Hull and some of its nearest East Riding suburbs?
Almost certain to be high on their agenda will be a speedy resolution to the devolution saga.
CAMPAIGNER: Labour’s Karl Turner, who survived a close shave in Hull East in 2019
None of Hull’s MPs are currently keen on the idea of an elected mayor which formed part of the now stalled proposal which has run out of parliamentary time to complete.
Labour councillors in both Hull and the East Riding have also repeatedly called for a better deal to be negotiated with a new Keir Starmer-led government.
Some in the Labour camp would even prefer some kind of Humber deal – an idea already supported in significant sections of the region’s business community.
For that to happen, some cross-estuary cooperation would be required and that could certainly be smoothed if Labour regained seats previously lost to the Conservatives in Grimsby and Scunthorpe.
Without ripping everything up and starting again, an agreed position needs to be settled on and implemented quickly to end the perception of our neck of the woods forever being at the back of the queue when it comes to money and devolved decision-making being transferred from Whitehall into local hands.
CHALLENGER: Rachel Storer, who is hoping to win Hull West and Haltemprice for the Conservatives
There’s also likely to be review of the Levelling Up programme which has attracted criticism nationally but has provided match funding for several building facelift projects in the city centre, as well as a recent £10m contribution towards the redevelopment of the vacant former Rank mill site next to the River Hull.
A quick glance at the numerous empty shops, offices and stalled development sites across Hull tells you there’s probably no easy fix.
Some reports suggest Labour might even scrap the title of Levelling Up, but reviving the economies of places like Hull will take more than just inventing a new buzzword or phrase.
There’s also a question mark over the future of the Household Support Fund, currently the government’s main way of supporting people impacted most by the cost of living crisis.
Ministers recently extended the fund until September and in a place like Hull, need has long outstripped the available funding.