Devolution: ‘Three main parties face an even fight for region’s first elected mayor’
BALLOT: The devolution plans could see a vote for a new regional mayor in 2025
Devolution explained: What happens next in the biggest proposed shake-up of local government for 30 years
By Angus Young
It promises to be the region’s biggest local government shake-up since the abolition of Humberside County Council in 1996, but what does the prospect of mayor-led combined authority for Hull and East Riding actually mean?
The proposed devolution deal outlined in Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement still has some way to go before it becomes a reality.
A review of the deal’s terms by both councils will follow together with a period of public consultation before formal votes on the move will be taken at full meetings of both authorities.
That is expected to happen in June next year. If both councils support it, the proposed deal and details of the public feedback on it goes back to the government.
Under the current timetable, the Secretary of State is expected to lay the relevant order to establish the Hull and East Riding Combined Authority and devolve the agreed functions and powers.
The necessary parliamentary order would then be made in early 2025 paving the way for a mayoral election in May of that year.
Predicting who might be elected to the role is less easy to pin-point from this distance when, as recent events have proved, a mere week can often seem like a very long time in politics.
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The most recent benchmark is this year’s elections in both council areas when all the seats in the East Riding and a third of the seats in Hull were contested.
Between the two areas, the Liberal Democrats polled the most votes with a combined total of 42,312. Labour attracted 34,707 votes while the Conservatives polled 32,030.
That suggests a fairly even three-way battle between the main parties although it’s worth pointing out that a combined total of just over 19,000 votes were cast for other candidates.
There’s also the small matter of a looming General Election to take into consideration when trying to forecast a likely winner.
If the current national polls are accurate, Labour is set for a landslide General Election victory. If that happens, a mayoral election in Hull and the East Riding will take place in a much-altered wider political landscape with Keir Starmer in charge at 10 Downing Street.
Likely mayoral candidates are also hard to envisage at this stage.
Current council leaders Anne Handley (pictured below right) and Mike Ross (below left) will undoubtedly be front and centre on the issue over the coming months but will they fancy the mayoral role in the long-term? As Labour MP Dan Jarvis proved during his stint as South Yorkshire’s elected mayor, it’s a job that can be juggled with another.
Other potential runners mentioned in the past include current Conservative MP for Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy and former Labour MP for Hull West and Hessle Alan Johnson. They would certainly fit the bill should a well-known figure with strong Westminster connections be a requirement.
Under the terms of the proposed deal, the new mayor would be in charge of annual investment funding worth £13.3m per year, a £15m capital budget to spend on transport, flood and coastal erosion programmes, up to £5m for economic growth projects including a possible expansion of the Siemens Gamesa offshore wind operation in Hull, £4.6m for building new homes on brownfield sites and have devolved powers to run adult education services.
There is also scope built into the deal to introduce local bus franchising and develop a mayoral development corporation at some point in the future. Similar initiatives have also started under elected mayors like Andy Burnham in Manchester and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley respectively.
In addition, the proposals include a commitment from the government to consider supporting the development of a specialist medi-tech business park at the Smith & Nephew site in Hull once the company relocates to a new complex in Melton.
Should it happen, the new-look authority wouldn’t mean the end of the road for the existing councils or their councillors.
They would continue to oversee day-to-day services while more strategic issues would be the responsibility of the mayor, whose decision-making is expected to be subject to a scrutiny process involving the existing cabinets of both councils.
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