What will 2023 bring? Erdoğan at risk and power shifting from the ANC: Columnist Paul Knott makes some predictions
Picture by Nicole Avagliano
The Accidental Diplomat, a column by Paul Knott
Change, turbulence and signs of hope - a look at the year ahead in global politics
Hull Fair is long since over but that means Gypsy Rose Lee’s crystal ball is free to borrow for a gaze into the prospects for the world over the year ahead. Let’s start with the superpowers.
China seems set for a turbulent 2023, which given its size and global significance means it will be troublesome for the rest of the world too. Having seized dictatorial control over his country and long boasted of his strength, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is now showing the weaknesses of such systems. Supposedly all-powerful and all-knowing rulers like Xi cannot admit to mistakes or accept contradictory advice without wrecking their authority. Following the collapse of his strict “Zero-Covid” policy, Xi has now lurched in the other direction and is letting the disease rip through society. China is ill-equipped to cope with this because Xi’s government failed to use its lengthy lockdowns to vaccinate the population adequately, or to equip its healthcare system sufficiently.
Rather than taking belated action to tackle the situation, which would suggest they had got something wrong in the first place, the Chinese authorities’ response is to pretend it is not happening. The consequence may be over a million, mostly avoidable, deaths in China. Plus, more economic disruption for the rest of the world and a period of worrying that a new and dangerous Covid variant may emerge from the country where the pandemic first started.
Xi’s position is probably safe for now. But his mistakes, not just on Covid, are mounting up and even brutal dictators can only get away with so many. The risk that China will attack Taiwan as a diversion to create a “success” for its leader remains. I would also keep an eye on the bizarre but often lethal series of cross-border punch-ups between Chinese and Indian troops in the high Himalayas, which could easily deteriorate into something worse.
In America, a hardcore of Republican headbangers will continue to cause chaos and handicap the country’s attempts to solve its problems. Their lead lunatic, Donald Trump, will gradually fade from the scene though, pursued painfully slowly by the forces of law and order. The foul whiff of Trump is only still lingering because the Republicans lack any other leaders with the courage or ability to challenge him. Their current most touted alternative, the robotic and cynical Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, will not survive sustained national scrutiny and be overtaken during this year by as yet unknown other candidates for the next presidential election in 2024.
President Joe Biden has done a remarkably good job in difficult circumstances of stabilising the US and passing legislation that will have long-term benefits for the country’s crumbling infrastructure and the fight against the climate crisis. Internationally, his leadership in restoring the democratic world’s unity and strength, prompted by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, will come to be seen as a historic achievement.
As things stand, Biden seems determined to seek re-election in 2024. But I suspect age and the fading of Trump, whom Biden was specifically elected to vanquish, will lead to him being prevailed upon by his family to announce his retirement before the end of 2023. His Democratic party have many more decent, next-generation candidates then they currently seem to realise. Watch out for Michigan’s impressive Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, becoming more prominent as a potential first female US president.
FADING FROM VIEW: Donald Trump. Picture credit: Library of Congress
I am reluctant to make firm predictions on the war in Ukraine because in such extreme circumstances of conflict there are a lot of “it depends” factors. If the Europeans and North Americans tighten sanctions on Russia and supply Ukraine with the extra weaponry (tanks, ammunition, longer-range missiles and better air defence systems) it needs soon, then the Ukrainians’ remarkable courage and determination will enable them to push the Russians out of most of their country this year. This outcome would also probably create the immense side-benefit for European security of prompting the fall of the odious Vladimir Putin, whether through him dying or being deposed in some way.
But if the pressure on Russia is not increased or even falters, then it will likely be able to prolong the conflict indefinitely. For all of its inadequacies, Russia is huge in terms of manpower and utterly callous in its disregard for how many of its own people, let alone Ukrainians, it kills in pursuing its disgusting war. Putin would, of course, like to “win” (whatever that means in his twisted terms) but is also vicious and vindictive enough to be happy with destroying Ukraine and stopping it from succeeding as a country. The Ukrainians are bearing the weight of battling his aggression. But the challenge of ending the threat from Russia is ours too and we must be more decisive in doing what it takes to make that happen. Ultimately, I think we will.
The Middle East will continue to be a beacon of light in the world. But enough about the region’s charming people, incredible culture and endless sunshine because, unfortunately, we are here to talk about its disastrously dysfunctional politics instead. Most of the Arab states will continue to stagnate under their various venal and incompetent rulers, but don’t rule out another Arab Spring-style uprising in at least one of them - perhaps Iraq.
In Israel, the bad penny-like Benjamin Netanyahu is back again as Prime Minister. I am not sure if Netanyahu actually had a soul to sell but I do not have a better metaphor for what he has just done to secure his latest comeback. In exchange for their support in ripping up Israel’s legal system in order to keep him out of jail for corruption, Netanyahu has formed a coalition with an appalling collection of far-right thugs. Rather than reviving the long-lost peace process, their sole purpose appears to be provoking more violent attacks on the Palestinians and another conflict with them. At some point in the year, they will probably achieve their aim.
Iran will be another hotspot. The mood in the country is apparently one of deep sadness, as yet another round of courageous mass protests looks to have been seen off by the regime’s willingness to maim and murder its own people.
This cycle of protest and repression will continue for as long as Iran’s religious extremist establishment remains in power. Another spark may come this year with the death of the ageing and unwell Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. That could lead to a shift to less ideological leaders from within the system, who are more focused on protecting their corruptly acquired assets than religious zeal. To some miserable degree, this might provide a brief respite from the worst oppression for the Iranian people, women in particular. One day in the not too distant future this horrible regime will fall but I am not sure it will happen this year.
Internationally, Iran will cause more trouble by completing its development of a nuclear weapons capability and threatening its neighbours. A renewed nuclear deal with the West to prevent this, based on sanctions relief for Iran and Tehran ending its pariah state partnership with Russia, is theoretically possible but looks unlikely in the present political circumstances.
CHANGE: The ANC may lose its majority in South Africa for the first time since the end of apartheid. Picture by Shaun Meintjes
Strategically important Turkey holds a crucial general election in June. Beset by economic and other problems partly of his own making, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is likely to lose if the vote is free and fair. Consequently, he is busily trying to make sure it is not by banning or imprisoning his most capable opponents, such as the Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu.
Erdoğan will also be tempted to indulge in nationalist rabble-rousing to stir up support. This could involve anything from holding Europe to ransom over refugees or support for Russia, to blocking Sweden and Finland from joining NATO and invading the Kurdish regions of northern Syria. Most dangerously of all, Erdoğan might spark a conflict with neighbour, fellow NATO member and traditional foe, Greece.
My bet is that, after much struggle, Erdoğan will be squeezed out and in a wave of Anglo-Turkish euphoria following Hull City’s late charge to win promotion via the play-offs, club owner Acun Ilıcalı will be elected Sultan for life. Well, maybe not, but Turkey will become one more country to add to the growing list of countries retreating from populism and opting for better governance.
Another landmark shift will come in South Africa, where the ANC will lose the majority it has enjoyed since the end of apartheid in 1994. The glorious party of liberation and Nelson Mandela has sunk into becoming little more than a patronage machine for the unscrupulously ambitious. A reshaping of politics in South Africa is now overdue, as part of a general, if patchy, trend of improvement in the prospects for much of Africa.
It is a wide world and, as in every year, there will be many other surprises and, sadly, some tragedies in 2023. Provocations by Serbia’s unsavoury government could cause violence in Kosovo. Islamist terrorists are on the march in the Sahel region, particularly in Mali and Burkina Faso. Big, important countries such as Pakistan and Nigeria teeter almost permanently on the edge of chaos. Afghanistan, Haiti, Somalia and parts of East Africa are threatened by food shortages and famine. Somewhere, such as California, Bangladesh or a Pacific island nation will suffer a climate crisis-induced calamity.
But overall, I predict the global picture will improve slowly and steadily in 2023, as the forces of destructive nationalism are increasingly discredited and the post-Covid supply chain, cost of living and inflation crises start to recede.
And, who knows, maybe one of the surprises will be that 2023 is even better than that. Happy New Year.